Ecosystem Health and Sustainability · Published 2026-05-28 · DOI 10.34133/ehs.0554
XiangLing Liu, Zhitao Wu, Xiaogang Shi, Keming Ma, Ziqiang Du, Xin Chen, Huilin Zhang, Bin Sun
Understanding the spatiotemporal dynamics of ecosystem services (ESs) and their responses to social-ecological drivers is critical for restoration governance in ecologically vulnerable regions. However, how these drivers shape ES dynamics through nonlinear threshold effects across multiple temporal scales remains insufficiently understood. Here, we integrate multiyear trends with interannual variability to examine ES dynamics and their drivers in the Beijing–Tianjin Sandstorm Source Control Project region from 2001 to 2022, using an interannual fluctuation index and an extreme gradient boosting–Shapley additive explanations approach. Results showed that carbon sequestration, sand fixation, soil conservation, and water yield exhibited overall increasing trends, while their spatial hotspots displayed distinct interannual variability, with fluctuation indices of 13.31%, 17.31%, 18.48%, and 13.54%, respectively. ESs that were primarily driven by climatic factors (sand fixation, soil conservation, and water yield) showed greater interannual fluctuations than those dominated by vegetation (carbon sequestration). Although the top-ranked driver for each ES remained consistent across temporal scales, its relative importance and anthropogenic influence increased in short-term dynamics. Threshold analysis further identified normalized difference vegetation index of approximately 0.6 and annual precipitation around 400 mm as key transition points associated with ES hotspot formation and persistence. Areas exhibiting both high ES provision and high hotspot persistence represent priority targets for conservation and restoration, given their greater capacity to sustain stable service provision under climatic variability and human disturbance. These findings highlight the importance of taking short-term ES dynamics and threshold effects into account in restoration management to sustain ecosystem functioning and service provision under ongoing environmental change.
Abstract from DOAJ. Public domain (CC0 1.0).
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Liu, X., Wu, Z., Shi, X., et al. (2026). Long-term and short-term dynamics of ecosystem services and their drivers in the Beijing-Tianjin Sandstorm Source Region. Ecosystem Health and Sustainability. https://doi.org/10.34133/ehs.0554