Ecosystem Health and Sustainability · Published 2026-07-26 · DOI 10.34133/ehs.0584
Ting Zhang, Zhiqi Yang
Rapid urbanization in Eastern China has extensively degraded habitat quality (HQ), yet the nonlinear ecological thresholds associated with these structural declines remain largely unexplored. Coupling an InVEST–intPLUS workflow with a CatBoost–Shapley additive explanations framework, we reconstructed HQ dynamics (2000 to 2020) and simulated future trajectories (2030/2040) under 3 developmental scenarios. Historically, HQ declined systematically, with degradation heavily concentrated in the plain-coastal corridors (zones IV and V). Forward-looking simulations reveal a severe divergence: economic growth scenarios tend to entrench low-HQ belts by exacerbating urban sprawl, and ecological protection scenarios successfully stall and partially reverse degradation through structural boundary controls. To interpret these diverging outcomes, our machine-learning analysis extracted precise multidimensional ecological tipping points. We identified that elevated land surface temperature is associated with accelerated habitat decline beyond 21.36 °C. While vegetation (normalized difference vegetation index) acts as the primary buffer, its ecological return follows an S-shaped saturation curve plateauing near 0.53. Furthermore, anthropogenic pressures are associated with pronounced habitat fragmentation when land-use intensity and economic density exceed critical limits (integrated land-use intensity > 2.40 and ln(gross domestic product) > 6.63). These mathematically extracted thresholds provide region- and model-specific quantitative benchmarks for optimizing future urban expansion and nature-based solutions within Eastern China.
Abstract from DOAJ. Public domain (CC0 1.0).
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Zhang, T., Yang, Z. (2026). Spatiotemporal Evolution and Nonlinear Thresholds of Habitat Quality: Past Trends and Future Scenarios in Eastern China. Ecosystem Health and Sustainability. https://doi.org/10.34133/ehs.0584