Current Oncology · Published 2026-07-24 · DOI 10.3390/curroncol33080444
Hyeran Jung, Minsun Jung
Background/Objectives: Korea has experienced rapid and heterogeneous shifts in cancer epidemiology since 1999. We aimed to characterize divergent incidence trajectories across the 24 major cancer types, quantify sex-specific burdens, and project case counts through 2030. Methods: Annual incidence data—including new case counts and age-standardized incidence rates (ASIRs) per 100,000 (2020 Korean standard population) stratified by sex—were extracted from the KCCR via the Korean Statistical Information Service (KOSIS) for 1999–2023. Annual percent change (APC) was estimated by log-linear regression with 95% confidence intervals (CIs). Holt–Winters damped exponential smoothing generated 2024–2030 projections with 95% prediction intervals (PIs). Changes in case ascertainment and coding over the study period were considered in interpretation. Results: Total incidence increased from 101,854 (1999) to 288,613 cases (2023), a 183.4% increase. Overall ASIR rose from 402.7 to 522.9 per 100,000. Of the 24 cancer types, 15 showed statistically significant increasing ASIR trends, 6 showed significant decreasing trends, and 3 showed no significant change. The highest-APC cancers were thyroid (+7.56%), prostate (+6.98%), testis (+5.39%), breast (+5.03%), and corpus uteri (+5.03%; all <i>p</i> < 0.001). The largest significant declines occurred in cervix uteri (−3.81%), larynx (−3.18%), liver (−2.90%), and stomach (−2.20%; all <i>p</i> < 0.001). Female ASIR increased from 294.7 to 488.9 per 100,000 (+65.9%); male ASIR increased from 573.3 to 587.0 per 100,000 (+2.4%). Total cancer incidence is projected to reach 307,091 (95% PI: 281,200–332,983) in 2026 and 330,213 (95% PI: 290,663–369,763) by 2030, with the steepest projected relative growth for prostate (+48.9%), kidney (+33.7%), and breast (+31.3%) cancers. Conclusions: Korean cancer epidemiology is undergoing a pronounced transition from infection-related toward metabolic, hormonal, and aging-related malignancies, with a marked and widening sex-specific divergence. Cancer-type-resolved projections through 2030 provide an evidence base for strategic capacity planning in Korean oncology.
Abstract from DOAJ. Public domain (CC0 1.0).
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Jung, H., Jung, M. (2026). Shifting Cancer Landscapes in Korea: Divergent Incidence Trajectories, Sex-Specific Burdens, and Projected Case Counts for 24 Major Cancer Types from 1999 to 2023, with Forecasts to 2030. Current Oncology. https://doi.org/10.3390/curroncol33080444