Infectious Disease Modelling · Published 2026-05-01 · DOI 10.1016/j.idm.2026.04.010
Monkeypox (Mpox) has re-emerged as a serious global public health concern due to its potential human-to-human transmission and persistence in the environment. This study develops a new deterministic model incorporating double-dose vaccination approach to analyze the transmission dynamics and effective interventions for the Mpox outbreak. The model divides the human population in six groups and includes an environmental reservoir, capturing both direct transmission from infectious individuals and indirect transmission through environmental contamination. Global stability results of the equilibria are examined utilizing a standard Lyapunov function approach. The parameters are estimated using cumulative Mpox cases reported during 2022 outbreak in the United States. Further, normalized sensitivity analysis is performed to indicate the key parameters influencing disease transmission and eradication. Pontryagin's maximum principle is applied to formulate an optimal control model using time-dependent variables for vaccination, treatment, and environmental disinfection. Simulation illustrates that double-dose vaccination substantially reduces new infections, particularly when coupled with timely treatment and environmental clearance measures. The findings of the present study highlight the importance of double-dose vaccination combined with complementary controlling measures in managing Mpox incidence and offer practical insights for public health planning.
Abstract from DOAJ. Public domain (CC0 1.0).
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