Infectious Disease Modelling · Published 2026-02-24 · DOI 10.1016/j.idm.2026.02.001
Quantifying transmission distance helps to understand infectious disease spread patterns, but few studies have assessed this for (re-)emerging respiratory infectious diseases. The COVID-19 pandemic's extensive surveillance and high-quality data in China offer a strong model for studying the spread pattern of respiratory infections. We collected COVID-19 outbreak data from June 2020 to December 2022 in mainland China to estimate transmission distances, examine the association between urban characteristics and transmission distance, and explore its implications in outbreak response. The mean transmission distance of all outbreaks was 18.94 km. This distance varied by SARS-CoV-2 variants, with wild-type outbreaks showing shortest transmission distance (3.08 km) and Omicron outbreaks showing longest transmission distance (20.17 km). Transmission distance was positively associated with city size and total length of roads. Potential transmission areas identified as areas within transmission distance of the first 100 cases contained 63.84–99.61% of cases. Providing testing services to residents in these areas helped to control the outbreak. Our results suggest that transmission distances can help predict where emerging respiratory infectious diseases may spread next spatially and guide the implementation of targeted interventions.
Abstract from DOAJ. Public domain (CC0 1.0).
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