Brazilian Journal of Psychiatry · Published 2025-10-05 · DOI 10.47626/1516-4446-2025-4411
Objective: To estimate the potential impact of physical activity (PA) on the forecast prevalence and economic cost of dementia among Brazilian adults. Methods: We analyzed data from the 2019 Brazilian National Health Survey to estimate PA levels. Dementia-related costs in 2019 were combined with prevalence data from the Global Burden of Disease Study. We estimated dementia cases and costs that could be averted if physical inactivity (< 150 min/week of moderate-to-vigorous PA) were eliminated. A counterfactual scenario assessed the effect of small increases in moderate (MPA) or vigorous (VPA) activity per week in adults who currently engage in zero min/week of PA. Results: In 2019, 14.9% of dementia cases in Brazil were attributable to physical inactivity, corresponding to 569,548 preventable cases by 2050. This would translate into an avoidable economic burden of R$ 23.1 billion (US$ 9.3 billion), of which R$ 20.2 billion are direct healthcare costs. In adults with zero minutes of PA, increasing MPA or VPA by 10 min/day could prevent 219,412 and 420,180 cases of dementia and save R$ 8.5 and R$ 16.2 billion by 2050, respectively. Conclusion: In Brazil, one in seven dementia cases is linked to physical inactivity. Modest increases in PA could yield major health and economic benefits.
Abstract from DOAJ. Public domain (CC0 1.0).
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